Market Intel
Coming Soon:
Known Unknowns & Unknown Unknowns
Whether we’re tiptoeing — or charging! — into 2025, we face a multitude of known unknowns, including…
- Can unionized dockworkers and port authorities avert an imminent strike set for January 15, which would disrupt supplies of containerized imports, including feed ingredients?
- Will potentially huge South American soybean crops get off to a strong start weather-wise?
- How will changes in biofuel mandates — not just affecting palm oil in Southeast Asia, but soybean oil in Brazil — impact global veg oil prices?
- When can we expect new import tariffs, which would increase the cost of China-sourced micro ingredients including amino acids, vitamins, and trace minerals?
- Then, how are ingredient exporting countries likely to respond to the new U.S. tariffs?
- And, when and how will new immigration rules and enforcement impact the U.S. dairy industry?
As for the new year’s unknown unknowns, we’re in for surprises and may encounter some soon enough. Meanwhile…
Soybean meal: Demand is strong perking the board up with basis steady despite increased supply going into Q1. Brazil and Argentina are wrapping up planting a potentially large crop, with Brazilian biofuel growth a factor. Yet weather risks remain. Soy products basis remains steady with the board up.
Canola meal: Basis and board are both up. Market Intel sources suspect “tighter supply flow at the border,” brought on by uncertainty over possible tariffs. U.S. demand remains strong, again pointing stronger Q1 prices. Â Â
Amino acids: Sources report the global market is quiet overall in the wake of the “perfect storm” that boosted lysine and threonine prices a month ago. Current higher prices are generally steady in advance of next month’s Chinese New Year. No shortages of DL methionine or tryptophan.
Vitamins: Vitamin prices generally are “not coming down quietly from their high of highs” last year, sources say. Yet supplies are steady for E, A and D3, again with the known effect of Chinese New Year and the known unknown tariff effect.
Trace minerals: Likewise quiet markets overall with greater calcium chloride supply. However, copper sulfate and zinc sulfate are available but lead times are longer.
P & K: Phosphate prices are up with supplies from Florida “taking their time to rebuild,” sources suggest. Potassium chloride (KCl) and magnesium oxide (MgO) prices are up slightly despite good supply and better river conditions. Sources note new questions about imported product quality — especially for “magox” — which tend to support use of domestic products.
Wheat midds: Demand remains high, which has sources “scratching heads” and still anticipating a “post-holiday slide” in prices.
Blood meal: Prices continue to rise, probably remaining strong into February due to the high returns on butterfat.
Distillers: DDGS prices continue to rise with the corn market and good demand, including from the export market. But here’s another potential target for counter tariffs.
Soy hulls: Demand remains strong with “unexpected high value” for Tri-State dairy producers per sources. Where is the price-demand tipping point?
Urea: Prices are up slightly even with “plenty of unsold product” and navigable river conditions. Â
Palm & bypass fat products: Palm products are in better supply, thanks to high prices with quotes projecting into Q3 although futures markets are weaker. Yet all the “vagaries” remain — Indonesian and Malaysian biofuel mandates, ocean freight rates, etc. There’s plenty of calcium salts available at steady prices. Sources also note significantly higher prices and tighter supply of the branded rumen bypass fat products.
Over the horizon… Among the known unknowns — highly pathogenic avian influenza (H5N1) infecting dairy cows and humans, now nicknamed simply “H5” by the CDC. So far, there are only two human infections reported on dairy farms in Michigan and as yet no others in the Tri-State.