Market Intel
Eyes on River Levels… and South America
Reduced cargo wait-times at East and Gulf Coast container ports show the fading impact of the brief longshoremen’s strike — fading at least until submerged but unsettled labor issues rise again in 2025.
Yet ingredient supplier eyes are still on the water, as there’s growing concern that low levels of the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers could hamper barge traffic.
Although containers from Asia are moving through the Panama Canal at a more normal rate, that’s not helping palm products. Supplies remain extremely tight — projected through Q4 and into Q1 — “If you can find it,” says one Market Intel source. However, the supply of calcium salts is abundant and prices steady.
Soybean meal: Eyes also are on Brazil and Argentina for soy planting, where spring rains may herald good crops to come. Currently, there’s improvement in SBM basis even as board prices are steady to lower. Look for lower basis near-term as South American prospects begin to pan out.
Canola meal: Both board and basis prices are steady as “cash pressure” continues to encourage Canadian to unload bins.
Amino acids: Prices for DL methionine are higher but steady with strengthening supply, while lysine and threonine are “on allocation,” Market Intel sources report. Expect prices somewhat higher going into Q1. Meanwhile, tryptophan prices are slipping.
Vitamins A, E, and D3 prices have steadied at high levels even with now extensive inventories. Sources expect prices to come down in Q1.
Trace minerals: The surprise this month is calcium chloride, which is on “extreme allocation” according to Market Intel sources because a primary manufacturer suffered production problems. Meanwhile, prices for both copper sulfate and zinc sulfate remain high, but steady, and may be ready to soften.
P & K: Biophos jumped up significantly thanks to back-to-back hurricanes across Florida, the major domestic source of phosphates. Potassium chloride prices are up, too, but steady, and are likely to soften in Q1. Magnesium oxide prices remain stable but may rise if river levels and ocean freight charges make delivery problematic.
Wheat midds: Prices are higher again based on continuing demand pressure. They’re getting high enough, Market Intel sources suggest, for midds to come out of some rations. Sources are still waiting for the price retreat — maybe next month?
Blood meal: Steady to slightly lower prices at present will begin to rise on entering the fall and winter holiday season.
Distillers: DDGS prices are swinging up on higher demand, thanks to low levels of vomitoxin (DON) in new crop corn, which has above average quality overall in the Tri-State.
Soy hulls: There is very tight supply of soy hulls, which continues to push up prices. Market Intel sources note that hay crops in the region suffered under a late summer dry spell that persisted into autumn. However, sources also expect soy hulls to “price out” soon.
Urea: Prices are higher but steady for now, although ocean freight rates and war zone shipping challenges still compound delivery costs.
Just over the horizon… While surprisingly resilient, the U.S. economy is weathering huge hurricane damages and extreme pre- and post-election jitters. Let us carry on!
Coming soon: November WASDE Report.
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